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中国P2P网贷平台存续时长的影响因素研究

更新时间:2019-10-22 09:22:07 浏览次数:

摘要:本文运营中和停业或转型的P2P网贷平台为研究对象,运用扩展Cox模型,将每个平台的存续时长作为被解释变量,研究平台特征变量以及宏观经济金融环境变量的影响。实证分析得出注册资本、注册地互联网经济状况、P2P行业竞争情况、加入行业协会、上线银行存管能显著提升P2P平台的生存时间,而第三方保障模式和债权转让业务需进一步优化,才能达到降低风险的作用。经济繁荣时期的货币增发、房地产市场景气、人民币升值等时期,反而容易催生劣质标的和借款人,提高风险;而通货膨胀引起的债务贬值和股市上涨引起的投资成本提高,有利于P2P平台吸引投资理财者,并降低逾期风险。

关键词P2P网贷平台;平台特征;宏观变量;生存分析;扩展Cox模型


Research on the Factors Affecting the Survival Time of

P2P Online Lending Platforms

Yu Zhou (HITSZ), Huan Zhi (CDI)

Abstract

This paper uses the extended Cox model to research P2P internet platforms by setting the operating time of platforms as dependent variable and platforms’ characteristics and macro-economic variables as explanatory variables.

In terms of platforms’ characteristics, the paid-in capital, the Internet status of registration places, the industrial competition degree, and whether joining the association and bank depository can make P2P platforms survive longer, while the third-party security model and the credit transfer business need to be further optimized in order to achieve the purpose of risk reduction. In terms of macroeconomic and financial variables, money supply increase, real estate market booms and appreciation of RMB are easy to generate inferior targets and borrowers, increasing P2P platforms’ risk, while inflation-induced debt depreciation and investment cost increase caused by the bull stock market are conducive to attracting investors and reducing overdue risks.

Keywords: P2P online lending platform, characteristics, macroeconomic variables, survival analysis, extended cox model